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How can Joe and Eva dominate the game like this?
It’s a question that’s been on every Survivor fan’s mind. Supposedly, Survivor 48 features 18 players struggling for the million-dollar prize, but sometimes it can feel like there are only two. Joe Hunter has all the allies. Eva Erickson’s got all the advantage. They’re wildly vocal about how they’ll never turn on each other. And yet—nobody else turns on them.
There are a couple of reasons why this may be the case, and also …why it may not be a bad thing, both strategically and for the soul of the show.
I’m a two-timeSurvivorplayer and a cohost of theSurvivorKnow-It-Alls.I also have a novelthat’s now available for pre-orderthat delves deep into what it feels like to be on reality television, so it’s safe to say I’ve been thinking about reality strategy for a long time. (The book is set on a jungle reality show, and features a has-been former contestant and a disgraced producer facing off, as each attempts to control the show’s story arc. It channels my 15 years as a reality TV contestant, writer, and podcaster. If you’re interested in reality TV, you may like it!)
If you haven’t been watching this season, Joe and Eva came together on the game’s first day. Eva, a 24-year-old PhD student, felt a deep bond with the paternal Joe, and he was the first person with whom she shared her autism diagnosis. Since then, they’ve been an unbreakable pair — that’s been so obvious to the other players (Joe and Eva also openly discuss their alliance with each other), it’s a mystery why they haven’t been eliminated.
While the dynamic duo (weirdly) don’t seem to be much of a conversation between players on the beach, it’s ignited quite the discourse online. Below, I lay out a few reasons why I think Joe and Eva haven’t been voted out yet (and no, it’s not because producers are protecting them!):
Joe
Everyone thinks Joe is the biggest threat to win Survivor 48. He’s got an incredible personal story: he’s a firefighter dad who’s playing for his sister to raise awareness about domestic violence. He has deep bonds with the cast members. He’s a challenge beast. And he has a pocket ally in Eva.
He’s clearly the tallest poppy. So why don’t they cut off his head?
Reason 1: Joe’s Playing a Really Good Game
Good Survivor is often boring Survivor. The best players in the game don’t win by flashy moves or chaotic blindsides. They win by keeping their alliances in-line. Boston Rob led Redemption Island by instituting a buddy system so his Ometepe alliance couldn’t betray him. In One World, Kim Spradlin convinced her cohort that they were all her secret besties.
I don’t necessarily think Joe is playing a game on par with those legends. Last episode, he oscillated from being complacent with his alliance to being unnecessarily paranoid. But at the same time, he’s putting a lot of care into creating deep bonds. You can see Joe every episode checking in, making sure everyone feels good, and connecting with each ally personally.
Reason 2: Yes, They’re Making Mistakes — But It’s Interesting to Watch!
I’ve loved how this season has showcased old-school bonds. One thing that makes Survivor better than a board game is that it’s set in the jungle. That isn’t only for scenery. The physical deprivation builds intense bonds that challenge the demands of the cutthroat strategic game. One of the most frustrating parts of the new era is how many seasons feel like gamebots making optimal moves against other gamebots. That can be exciting in the moment, but often feels hollow. “I don’t want to hurt people, even if it’s to the benefit of my game,” Kyle says. Watching him make a potentially sub-par strategic move, because it challenges something deeper in him, is beautiful too.
Reason 3: Is Voting Out Joe Really Such a Good Move?
I also think some of the most influential players may actually be served by keeping Joe in the game.
Shauhin or Kyle could think they are the second biggest threats on the board. If they take out Joe at seven or eight, they might be voted out next. If Shauhin flipped last week, suddenly he’d be facing an alliance of Mitch-Mary-Kamilla-Kyle and a very angry Eva. Preserving the alliance structure keeps him safe. New era Survivor is all about waiting until the last possible second to make your game-winning move. The best time for Shauhin to strike may be as late as the final six or even five … though it’s also a gamble that Joe doesn’t win a crucial last-ditch immunity.
I also wonder—and this could be off base—could Joe lose a jury vote? In the last episode, it looked like his paranoia may be getting the best of him. There also might be bitter jurors who’d happily vote for an underdog. David’s clearly pissed. Chrissy and Mary might feel like he shut them out. If he backstabs Shauhin, he could be facing an overwhelming anti-Joe jury bloc.
Eva
Okay, so there’s a good reason to keep Joe around. But why not vote out Eva? After all, she has so much hardware! An idol everybody knows about! A Safety Without Power advantage! Why not try to blindside her before she has a chance to reach into her bag of tricks?
Reason 1: Nobody Expects Eva to Actually Win
Eva’s game has largely been about following Joe, and the players may not perceive her as a jury threat. We all scratched our head when Xander on Survivor 41 was allowed to float to the end unchallenged with a not-so-hidden immunity idol. But when he got to the final tribal, he received zero votes. I could easily see Eva getting a goose egg. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.)
On the other hand, if you target Eva, you risk a huge blowup. She plays her idol, and suddenly, you could be going home.
Reason 2: The Game Isn’t Rigged — Eva Is Just Lucky
So much of the online discourse over the last few weeks has been about how the game is broken for Eva, and how she’s receiving unfair advantages. Many people pointed to the now-notorious picture that showed her on reward, with a custom place setting right next to an advantage clue. The implication was that production essentially handed her Safety Without Power.
But if you look at Eva’s clue, it reads “Your effort in today’s challenge has earned you a secret advantage.” It sounds like the advantage was intended for whomever won the immunity challenge that week. Personally, I think it’s bad design for production to gift additional rewards to players who win immunity. Challenges and advantages favor different playstyles – on the one hand, you have to be strong and coordinated; on the other, you have to be sly and sneaky. But I don’t think production was favoring Eva specifically. You only have to look at this past episode’s advantage, Knowledge Is Power, which lets a contestant steal an idol or advantage from another player. Basically, it’s laser-targeted AGAINST Eva, and only by luckily drawing the purple rock, did Eva somehow manage to be on that journey.
(On a side note, I’ve heard some people say that Eva technically should have lost her vote when she knocked over her tower before the clock ran out. I can guarantee you she got the go-ahead from production to do so, rather than waste everybody’s time waiting on the hourglass.)
I know so many people are frustrated this season. I’m shouting at my TV, too. But for years, we’ve been begging Survivor to cast a wider range of players, not only the strategists who know every angle, but the people who are less familiar with the show, who’ve only watched a few seasons, and will make big mistakes. Casting people like David gives us the sublime moment where he stood up to honor Mary, about which Mary tweeted: “The way i wanted to cry out of sadness for my vote out but then david stood up and i cried out of lmfao.” And sure, it might have been nice to see more of David and Mary’s apparent friendship throughout the season, but then the impact wouldn’t have felt so delightfully random.
In my mind this season has big heart and big LMFAO, even if it’s lacking the big moves.
